Models show intensifying wildfires in a warming world due to changes in vegetation and humidity; only a minor role for lightning

Climate scientists present a realistic supercomputer simulation that resolves the complex interactions between fire, vegetation, smoke and the atmosphere. The authors find that increasing greenhouse gas emissions will likely increase the global lightning frequency by about 1.6% per degree Celsius global warming, with regional hotspots in the eastern United States, Kenya, Uganda and Argentina. Locally this could intensify wildfire occurrences. However, the dominant drivers for the growing area burned by fires each year remain shifts in global humidity and a more rapid growth of vegetation, which can serve as wildfire fuel.

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